Tag Archive for: interest rates

money in vice grips_canstockphoto20020 770x320

The U.S. commercial real estate industry’s ability to get credit and, therefore, fortunes have strong ties to the 4,648 insured banks (according to the FDIC) in the country that provide about 38.6% of CRE loans.

Anything that negatively affects the stability and credit ratings of the banks is an issue for the CRE industry. Despite multiple federal officials and regulators repeatedly saying that the entire banking system is sound, Moody’s recently cut ratings on a number of smaller and regional banks and put some larger ones on notice that they might face potential actions.

Now Fitch Ratings analyst Chris Wolfe warned in a CNBC interview that the current financial state of banks couldn’t be taken for granted. It is possibly that a slight change in conditions for the industry, with an overall rating drop like the one Fitch instituted in June, could force a reconsideration and credit downgrade of some major banks, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, because an individual bank can’t have a credit rating higher than the industry as a whole.

In June, Fitch downgraded banks’ “operating industry” score from AA to AA- “because of pressure on the country’s credit rating, regulatory gaps exposed by the March regional bank failures and uncertainty around interest rates,” as CNBC wrote.

A second downgrade would leave the industry at A+. Currently, JPMorgan and Bank of America, among some other of the largest banks, have an AA- rating from Fitch.

JPMorgan said that it did not have a comment in reply to a GlobeSt.com request. Bank of America also said it wouldn’t comment, but did send a copy of Moody’s May 3, 2023, upgrade of the “long-term debt and deposit ratings, counterparty risk ratings and counterparty risk assessments of Bank of America Corporation” and its rated subsidiaries and the baseline assessment of its principal bank subsidiary, Bank of America, N.A.

However, in today’s quickly changing economic environment, the date of that upgrade is close to four months old. Downgrades would have serious implications for banks and for CRE lending. With a lower rating, banks have higher credit costs and more concerned investors and depositors. That could drive banks to polish up their balance sheets even more, which in turn could mean reductions in CRE lending and selling off of existing loans, which would drive down their value and that of existing loans, undermining valuations going forward.

 

Source: GlobeSt

chess_challenge_169627837_s 770x320

There was a whirlwind of real estate deals in 2021 and most of 2022 as billions of dollars flowed toward the purchase or development of South Florida properties.

That steady pace of dealmaking was fueled by an influx of wealthy people, well-paid professionals, and businesses who relocated from other parts of the U.S. to Florida due to its decent weather, low taxes and business-friendly environment.

Today, that migration is still ongoing. However, higher interest rates and growing concerns of a nationwide recession have noticeably cooled South Florida’s red-hot economy. Still, the state’s population continues to grow, which has, in turn, kept the economy humming.

Meanwhile, the tri-county region remains a favored destination for the rich to invest and live in.

To discover about how these trends are affecting South Florida’s residential, office, retail and industrial real estate markets, now and into the future, the South Florida Business Journal gathered a panel of experts for its ninth annual Market Review panel event at the ArtsPark Gallery in Hollywood.

Moderated by Business Journal Real Estate Editor Brian Bandell, the panelists discussed how high interest rates and inflation have affected some property sectors and not others, whether the state’s continued population growth will make it less susceptible to a national recession, and other key topics. The two-hour discussion was sponsored by Berkowitz Pollack Brant Advisors and CPAs, Stiles and the city of Hollywood.

High Interest Rates

The panel launched with experts discussing one of the main drags on the region’s real estate market: higher interest rates.

Noah Breakstone, CEO of Fort Lauderdale-based developer BTI Partners, said interest rates started at 3.25% in January and have climbed to about 7%.

“It’s had a serious impact on purchasing power for single-family home buyers, for condo buyers throughout the market, and we are going to continue to see that effect,” Breakstone said.

Art Lieberman, director of tax services for Miami-based Berkowitz Pollack Brant Advisors + CPAs, agreed, adding that he’d seen a consistent slowdown in property transactions in recent months.

“And there is a good reason for that,” Lieberman said. “Financial leverage is turning either even or upside down.”

The rise in interest rates has created a “bid/ask spread,” in which sellers and buyers are reluctant to compromise on the price of real estate assets. That’s caused transactions to slow down, if not stop altogether.

“A lot of my clients are projecting no property sales for at least three months,” Lieberman said.

As for office deals, they have “come to a screeching halt,” said Brett Reese, managing director of Boca Raton-based CP Group, one of the largest office landlords in Florida.

“Deals we are still trying to make happen involve the seller offering financing 
 or they have an existing mortgage that we can assume,” Reese said. “Absent that, it is virtually impossible to make the deals work today.”

High interest rates, high capitalization rates and sellers not willing to compromise on price have contributed to the office deal slowdown.

“The other issue we come across is public markets,” Reese said. “The REITs (real estate investment trusts) have traded down or sold off so badly that their valuations are bleeding into the public market a lot faster than private markets.”

High interest rates and cap rates have slowed retail transactions, as well, said Nicole Shiman, senior VP of Edens, a Washington, D.C.-based retail owner and operator. On top of that, consumers nationwide are being squeezed by inflation. Nevertheless, retail has already faced adversity.

“Retail has been experiencing broad-based headwinds for a number of years, with e-commerce and Covid being the most significant stress tests imagined on retail,” Shiman said. “So, retail has fared a lot better than a lot of its piers from an interest rate perspective.”

Michael J. Stellino, senior managing director of development for Elion Partners, a North Miami Beach-based investment management firm that focuses on industrial real estate, said high interest rates have affected its business. But the industrial sector is doing fine.

“The ray of sunshine is that we have seen a lot of interest in the capital markets,” Stellino said. “Pension funds really have shown a positive commitment to industrial. It still feels like this is an asset class that has a long way to go.”

The Trillion-Dollar State

Harvey Daniels, VP of sales for Miami-based Fortune International Group, a broker and developer of high-end condominium projects, said high interest rates have hardly impacted the luxury residential sector. His customers pay cash directly to the developer over a period of four or five years.

“When you are dealing with the ultra-high-end luxury market, it is like, ‘What is a mortgage?’ You just don’t hear about it,” Daniels said.

And his clients are willing to pay record prices for a luxury residence, especially if it comes with an ocean view.

“I have been doing development sales for 30 years in South Florida, and I can tell you there are some of the most expensive projects coming online that South Florida has never seen before,” Daniels said. “Prices per square foot are exceeding $5,000. Somebody just sold something at preconstruction at $7,500 a foot. The reality is, they are coming here and they are buying here. And when that money comes here, the other things come.”

Bandell asked the panelists if the state of the national economy could slow down luxury buying in South Florida.

“Look, I have been hearing this for a long time, but we are in a bubble,” Daniels said. “We go up high and we go low fast. It is what it is.”

With 800 people a day moving to Florida, the state will continue to prosper, Berkowitz Pollack Brant’s Lieberman said.

“They have to live somewhere and work somewhere and play somewhere,” Lieberman said. “So 
 there is going to have to be increased building.”

In 2020 and 2021, more money migrated to Florida — about $24 billion — than any other state in the U.S., Edens’ Shiman said.

“Texas is next on the list, and they had $6 billion,” Shiman added. “We are talking about three or four times more than anywhere else in the country. And retail is in a great position to capture much of that cash flow. If you have significant wealth migration, you have more consumers with disposable income who can spend and that really drives retail sales, And once you drive retail sales, that is the opportunity to drive retail rents.”

The office sector has certainly benefited from the wealth influx, especially among companies entering the market for the first time, CP Group’s Reese said.

“For the last few years, the momentum on the leasing front has been unlike anything the state has experienced before,” Reese said. “Historically, maybe there was 250,000 square feet or so of new-to-market tenants coming in. Since Covid, it has been 2 million square feet and, if you were to look at who that is, it is every household hedge fund, private equity, bank, technology firm. They all established a presence in South Florida.”

Those new companies want Class A office space, and they are willing to shell out top dollar for it.

“There is no cap on what the top hedge funds or banks are willing to pay. The comps we are getting in West Palm for the best-quality space are three or four times higher than the highest rent ever achieved in South Florida,” Reese said. “What people are paying in rent per square foot is what we are buying buildings for per square foot.”

The influx of people and business has enhanced the demand for industrial, too, Elion Partners’ Stellino said.

“Those people are still shopping. They are still buying things,” Stellino said. “And where does all that product get stored before it goes to the retailer? Before it goes to the condominium? It all flows through the warehouse.”

Increasingly Unaffordable

The luxury market is performing well because South Florida is a historically proven safe harbor, both domestically and internationally, BTI Partners’ Breakstone said.

“Look at what is happening in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Russia,” Breakstone said. “People want to keep their money here.”

But while the influx in cash has helped the commercial real estate sector, it hasn’t made it easier for the average income earner to afford to live here. Not only are most homes out of reach thanks to high interest rates, but rents are increasingly unaffordable, Breakstone said

“People who are medium income, they’re using over 50% of their earnings to live here and it’s getting even more costly,” Breakstone said.

Even local residents who bought early have a predicament.

“If you live in a place that you own, it’s great what you can sell it for,” Breakstone said. “But what are you going to buy?”

Higher interest rates and labor costs have made it much more expensive to build, too. And with less supply, there will be higher housing costs, taking the housing affordability issue from bad to worse, Breakstone said.

“I think Miami is on the track to be another New York, just with a better tax environment, superior weather, easier access and a lot of other dynamics,” Breakstone said. “But affordability is going to be a substantial challenge. I don’t think that is going to go away and there is going to have to be more creative solutions.”

The attraction of a skilled workforce is what South Florida needs to attract large tech companies such as Google, Reese said.

“South Florida in general is a place a lot of students want to move to, but it’s extraordinarily expensive,” Reese added, “So offering more affordable housing options is going to be critically important to attract that talent, and having that talent will spur more growth with employers.”

Future Trends

South Florida has likely already seen its biggest lease deals in the present real estate cycle, Reese said, so a “cooling off period” seems imminent. Transactions for office buildings, on the other hand, will probably heat up as the substantial mortgages that landlords took out over the years come due.

“We are at this standstill where somebody has to blink and 
 the first guy to blink is going to be the seller,” Reese said.

Retail landlords will generally do well in South Florida, thanks to the influx of cash and a shortage of available retail space, Edens’ Shiman said.

Industrial is also set to prosper, especially since developers and retailers are still hoarding items and materials after dealing with supply chain issues last year.

“They realize they are losing customers if they don’t have items on the store shelves,” Elion Partners’ Stellino said. “So, they keep that inventory here, where they can control it. That means builders and distributors now keep the raw materials they need in warehouses here instead of offshore and abroad, in case there’s another hiccup in the supply chain.”

Yet, there’s only so much space where new industrial can be built, leading logistics developers to consider new approaches.

Stellino said local industrial developers could replace Class B and Class C office buildings with newer Class A industrial, since they’re often in major markets.

Breakstone said there’s so much uncertainty in the market, he’s stopped trying to predict the future. He just makes sure he’s nimble enough to react to the “crosswinds that are happening.”

“South Florida is a micro-economy that does not follow national trends,” said Berkowitz Pollack Brant’s Lieberman. “We have booms when no one else does, And we have busts when no one else does.”

And Florida is unique in another aspect: Many of the people moving their residences and companies to the Sunshine State are attracted by its center-right politics.

“People are moving here for political reasons,” Lieberman said. “As long as there is a political imbalance between the north and the south, I think you will see the continued increase in population.”

 

Source: SFBJ

outlook_forecast_184185546_s 770x320

Core CPI inflation and headline CPI both decelerated last month, in a trend experts say could portend more disinflation factors in the near term.

Analysts from Marcus & Millichap note in a new analysis that the prices for some commodities also fell in October, including apparel and used motor vehicles, and the fees certain medical services.

“And these may be early signs that less disrupted supply chains are alleviating some of the structural drivers of inflation,” Marcus & Millichap say.

Headline CPI increased 7.7 percent over the 12 months ending in October, the smallest year-over-year increase since January of this year. While the deceleration is notable, Marcus & Millichap experts say the downshift is unlikely to be enough to fend off another hike in the overnight lending rate in December.

“The Federal Open Market Committee noted in its most recent forward guidance that it is looking for a clear trend of inflation normalizing toward the 2 percent target,” Marcus & Millichap say. “Even so, the FOMC has also acknowledged that there is a delay between when monetary policies are put in place and when the economy responds, and last month’s slower price climb, paired with an uptick in unemployment, support a more moderate rate hike. The current expectation is for a 50-basis-point December rise in the fed funds measure, capping the fastest year of increases since the early 1980s.”

But October’s inflation news offers a “mixed outlook” for retail CRE: while rent growth has improved and vacancy has tightened over the last year, prices continue to keep pace at restaurants and grocers. Gas prices also ticked up in October after three months of decreases, and higher energy bills are predicted to constrain consumer spending entering the holiday shopping season.

High housing costs are good news for the multifamily sector, where rents continue to rise at a rate that’s half the typical house payment. Over half of last month’s CPI increase was driven by higher housing costs, Marcus & Millichap says.

“In recognition of these housing needs, multifamily construction activity is set to hit a record magnitude next year,” Marcus & Millichap say. “While the new supply is warranted in the long-run, in the short term it will drag on fundamentals, especially as high inflation and rising interest rates weigh on economic outlooks and prompt more households to stay put in 2023.”

Lenders are also pumping the brakes as the cost of debt continues to increase. CBRE’s Lending Momentum Index fell by 11.1% quarter-over-quarter and 4.7% year-over-year in Q3, while spreads widened on 55%-to-65%-loan-to-value (LTV) fixed-rate permanent loans running from seven to 10 years in length. Marcus & Millichap has noted that pricing is recalibrating across most property types as the expectation gap between buyers and sellers widen and lending criteria have tightened.

“But once interest rates stabilize, however, investors and lenders will be better able to determine valuations and move forward on trades,” the firm says. “In the interim, the dynamic environment fostered by the Fed could lead to unique options for buyers, who may face less competition now than when rates plateau.”

 

Source: GlobeSt.

 

inflation_188946049_s 770x320

Pesky, lingering inflation that is higher than we’ve seen in years, along with six interest rate hikes totaling 375 basis points since the beginning of the year have had varying degrees of impact on all sectors in commercial real estate.

The speculation of further hikes later this year and in early 2023 doesn’t help.

Industrial real estate remains one of the darling sectors, though it is being tested by current economic conditions.

Four industrial real estate professionals, including owners, investors and brokers, three of them based in Chicago and one based in Houston, participated in a roundtable discussion, giving their perspectives on inflation, interest rates and industrial real estate. The participants: Alfredo Gutierrez, Founder, SparrowHawk; Rick Nevarez, Director of Acquisitions, Clear Height Properties; Kelly Disser, Executive Vice President, NAI Hiffman; and Hugh Williams, Principal and Managing Broker, MK Asset Brokerage.

What are the implications of the five 2022 rate hikes on transaction/acquisition activity?

Alfredo Gutierrez: It’s a challenging time as there are more investors stepping to the sideline. This means that if you are selling an asset today you might get three or four offers versus a dozen one year ago. On the  buy side, if investors have cash or lines of credit tied to a low rate, they are utilizing their resources. The fundamentals on the income side of the equation, because of rent growth, are still strong—that’s factual. Some are putting down their pencils because they are concerned about the potential for a recession and whether we’ll see the same levels of rent growth.

In reality, cap rates are a function of how much capital there is to invest into something. The question is how much dry powder remains on the sideline. We’re seeing an erosion of capital on the retail side and people starting to get squeezed. However, banks, life companies and institutions still have capital to place, and I believe it will flow into industrial.

Rick Nevarez: Activity has slowed, but it hasn’t come to a grinding halt. Overall, we continue to see deal activity and are expecting a big fourth quarter. It’s like airplane turbulence:  some respond with white-knuckle gripping of the arm rest while others acknowledge it’s taking place and go about their business. It’s really a matter of understanding the fundamentals of the real estate and how the current economic environment impacts those fundamentals.

Kelly Disser: It’s an interesting time with different groups being impacted in different ways. Owner occupants, private investors, institutional investors—all have acted or reacted differently. The demand for industrial space and leasing absorption today is still very strong. Inventory/vacancy is at an all-time low. As a result we’re seeing rent growth like we haven’t seen before. In certain underwriting acquisitions, we are seeing the impact of interest rates on values somewhat mitigated by rent growth and rents trending even higher than what we see today. The equation is evolving.  The development and investment sales markets have reacted and adjusted. Those with large funds have the ability to remain active and aggressive—and they are distinguishing themselves. Investors/developers who are sourcing capital on a deal by deal basis may be having issues in the current environment.

Hugh Williams: There was a point this summer when large institutional investors essentially said, “pencils down on all deals,” unless it was a perfectly placed asset/tenant combination in the middle of the fairway. Investors and developers are proceeding with haunting caution because at some point the math does not work.  You cannot acquire an asset when you underwrite debt costs that are greater than your projected return. That is problematic.

But we need to remember we’ve been in a low-rate environment for a long time, an environment that couldn’t last forever; and there are geopolitical events taking place that are also important considerations.  I have heard people say they are pulling back but some of them aren’t sure why. Overall, leasing activity is quite strong, and things are still moving forward particularly in select markets and micro-markets.

How are the rate hikes changing the flow of acquisitions and dispositions, if at all? And are they impacting different size buildings differently?

Nevarez: Interest rate hikes have pushed some buyers and sellers to the sidelines. But we are still buyers, looking at a variety of opportunities including value-add acquisitions. Sometimes you have to tweak underwriting to have a deal pencil out and make sense. Now more than ever, you need to understand ALL elements of the transaction, and what is motivating buyers and sellers.

Gutierrez: The effect based on size is really a case by case situation. But in general, if you had two assets where essential building characteristics except for size were essentially the same, the smaller asset would feel the pinch more. While smaller buildings are more likely to have shorter term leases, it will depend on the tenant roster and the lease terms. At the same time, because the rent roll may turnover more quickly, smaller buildings may be able to adjust pricing more quickly, too.

Disser: Interest rate hikes are impacting the flow of acquisitions and dispositions. The  pace has slowed in the second half of 2022 from what we saw the prior 18 months. But it is all relative, the first 18 months coming out of covid we saw activity levels, values and rents not seen before—in Chicago and across the country. An adjustment was needed.  There was simply too much money chasing too few assets:  the definition of inflation. Impact varies from case-to-case, according to location, submarket, or quality of asset.

Williams: My hypothesis is that if you go to a smaller, non-institutional building, it’s generally a different type of buyer, with a different mentality. For example, an operator like Blackstone is taking the long view. They are likely focused on main and main locations. When they go to build, they are focused on operating their platform as a business, not necessarily the conditions of the moment or focused on a near to short term exit. Smaller owners may be at greater risk—real and emotional—based on being prisoners of the moment (as we all are).  The short stroke is big boats are better ballasted against storms. Small boats get tossed about.

In other asset classes—like office and multifamily—some say that activity has slowed as the market looks for a re-set. To what degree is that occurring in the industrial sector, and are there other considerations (i.e., size, etc.)?

Nevarez: It’s really hard to say that any asset class is recession-proof, but industrial certainly is close. If the market was overbuilt, the impact might be different. There may be a scaling back and slight reset of pricing, but it’s not the same as other sectors because demand has been so strong. Our portfolio, for example, is 96% leased due to lack of product in the markets we own and operate in.

Gutierrez: A lot of people have put pens down, so to speak. Unless you need to place capital, you won’t. With some of the overall questions that exist, and fewer offers to consider, there isn’t necessarily a lot of pricing clarity. As 2022 wraps up our volumes will be down, particularly for the second half of the year.

Disser: It is always dangerous to generalize. The idea of a price reset isn’t absolute in industrial, as it may be in other sectors. In the industrial sector I think value equations are evolving, given rent growth. We see absorption, leasing and rental rates continuing to increase. The user/occupier clients of mine generally are operating businesses that are still strong and eyeing expansion.  In addition to scrutinizing interest rates, many are watching how lenders behave—as many have slowed loan origination activity. For some groups, the ability to secure the capital for a project in some cases is as much of a question as the cost of the capital.  If you lose your equity partner or can’t get a loan—you’re out.

Williams: There is a group that has been waiting 5-6, 10 years for a reset! The sky is continually falling.  Say it long enough and eventually you will be right. Pricing may fluctuate from its peak, but I don’t anticipate an incredible swing. The reality is that developers are much more rational today and have been that way for the last decade. What is going on in the interest rate environment forces additional austerity measures onto industrial developers.

All of the various elements at play lead me to believe that the sky will not fall, maybe a little rain, but rainwater is one of the keys to life—ask California.

How are higher interest rates impacting user sales/acquisitions? Are the higher rates making them any more or less likely to look at renting versus owning?

Nevarez: Higher Interest rates make it harder for users to come up with the capital to purchase an asset. Most users would rather place their capital in their actual business operations (machinery, employees, etc.).  Current owners may also look at their overall business plan to determine where they may need additional capital and find creative ways on how to get that capital. They look at their actual real estate as an opportunity to raise capital—through a sale leaseback—and to Clear Height (landlords) as a way to get that capital, creating a win-win situation for both parties.

Gutierrez: One of the factors that pushes users to consider an acquisition is the upward trajectory of rental rates. They figure they might as well buy. But in the current interest rate environment, the cost of ownership—if there was an inventory of buildings for users to buy—is up as well.

While there are concerns across the industry about interest rates, inflation and their overall impact, Alfredo Gutierrez suggests that the potential for stagflation would be worse. “If the Fed is going to push us into a recession, put us there and make it short-lived.”

Disser: Everything is getting more expensive across the board; that is why inflation is so crucial at this point in time. I don’t believe the increases in interest rates have impacted user sales whatsoever.  The most limiting factor is just availability of space or available options that could be purchased.  There is virtually no inventory. I have clients who want to sell their buildings—they need more space—but have no where to go; because there is nothing larger for them to buy.   Clearly the higher cost of funds results in larger interest payments, but the demand and growth seems to be greatly outweighing borrowing costs.

Williams: Not everyone needs to own a home, not everyone needs to own industrial real estate. Unless there is a specialized need, most operators should probably focus on their business and not try to get into the real estate game. The other consideration is that because of the overall tightness of the market, it’s hard to make a move—hard to buy a building. For many owner-users real estate is as emotional as it is practical.  Those that really want to buy will find a way but my supposition is that things slow on the user front because higher interest rates also affects the entire supply chain of activities within a warehouse as much as the cost of acquiring that warehouse.

 

Source: REjournals

10349421 - hand of businessman holding dollars

A building that makes “no sense” to most investors could be a diamond in the rough to another — and knowledge and information is key in the current rising rate environment, according to one industry watcher.

“You can’t add value to bonds — and unless you own a VC firm or you’re Warren Buffett or Elon Musk, you really can’t create value by owning stocks,” says Marcus & Millichap’s John Chang. “Other than owning a company or a franchise, only real estate allows investors to roll up their sleeves, either physically or metaphorically, and create value in an investment.”

And Chang says this happens in one of three ways: repositioning, management, or knowledge.  Repositioning can be as simple as upgrading common areas and as complex as transforming high-rise office towers into apartments (a trend that’s happening at a rapid rate in some major metros).  It can also fall somewhere in between those extremes: think moving a Class C property to Class B or repurposing an outdated shopping mall into a mixed-use asset.

“Creating value in management can also run the gamut,” Chang says. “At the simplest level, an investor may see some high value but basic operational things that can be done — perhaps just cleaning up a property, adding professional management and moving the rents to market. Something more complex may be re-tenanting a building. An office investor I know bought a very large property with an enormous vacant space. He already had a major tenant lined up so he bought the building, restructured the space a bit and then plugged the new tenant in. Boom: the building went from 25% occupancy to 90% occupancy and the property value changed dramatically.”

Chang also draws on another anecdote, this time in the multifamily space, to illustrate this point further. He says an investor he knows with a great apartment management team bought several small- to mid-sized near the ones he already owns and leveraged that team across multiple units.

And finally, there’s knowledge, which Chang says is “all about finding market inefficiencies and exploiting them.” This could include acquiring assets based on emerging demographics or population migration, or could come on the heels of a major employer changing its HQ location or in advance of a tax or policy change. Chang says there are ample opportunities to “capitalize on information where the pending changes are not baked into an asset’s price.”

Several recent examples bear that out: the global supply chain dilemmas plaguing virtually every sector of the economy have prompted many companies to consider re-shoring or near-shoring to mitigate those types of risks in the future.

“These and more opportunities are out there, and a lot of them will make sense regardless of rising interest rates or other factors affecting the market,” Chang says.

 

Source: GlobeSt

wooden number 10_95825388_s 770x320

LaSalle is expecting a high-impact second half of 2022, according to its Mid-Year Update.

The firm provided the top 10 issues it believes could steer commercial real estate’s direction, including those related to bonds, returns, capital flows, expenses, energy, construction and central banks.

GlobeSt.com highlighted LaSalle’s No. 1 top issue: Cost Of Debt.

Following are the others that made its list and LaSalle’s assessment, as well as commentary from others in the industry.

2. Rising Corporate Bond Yields – Upward pressure on discount rates and exit cap rates.

Jon Spelke, managing director of LFB Ventures in El Segundo, tells GlobeSt.com, “Cap rates will continue to follow interest rates upward trends to avoid negative leverage situations. It will be difficult to underwrite a deal with negative leverage and relying on rent growth to bail out the deal. Especially while expense growth continues to trend and at an equal rate as rents.”

3. Higher Required Returns – As a corollary of No. 2, investors will seek slightly higher returns from real estate, given that alternative credit market products will now be priced at higher yields.

Spelke added, “Unlevered yields will continue to follow interest rates and as asset pricing adjusts to the new financing norms (i.e. sellers come to grips with the current asset pricing versus what they thought they could get 90 days ago) deal flow will resume. This economic situation was/is not caused by the real estate industry, (i.e., over building, etc.) so real estate remains a healthy asset class in most regions and submarkets. Once values adjust, the deal flow will resume with strong fundamentals following.”

4. Capital Flows To Real Estate – Despite the mixed impacts listed above, real estate’s reputation as a better inflation hedge than fixed income will likely maintain its status as a favored asset class while the securities markets experience volatility.

Eli Randel, chief operating officer, CREXi, tells GlobeSt.com that increasing costs of capital will likely result in expanded yields and softened values, however, large supplies of capital seeking deployment may help sustain current asset values.

“Commercial real estate, even at compressed yields, remains a more attractive investment vehicle to many relative to cash, bonds, and equities and as a result quality assets in quality markets will find abundant capital demand even at still high-prices,” Randel said. “Look for low-leverage, negative-leverage, and all-cash deals to become more prominent with pricing on those deals reflecting sub-optimal levels. An institutional flight to quality will create a bifurcation in the market where core deals will trade at aggressive pricing with suboptimal deals seeing a decline in value.”

5. Capital Market Shifts – Investor demand moves away from fixed long-term leases and toward shorter indexed leases.

Jeff Needs, director, Moss Adams Real Estate Advisory, tells GlobeSt.com, “As markets continue to search for price stabilization, expect to see shorter-term leases, reduced capital improvements and negotiating leverage continuing to tip to tenants. Vacancies that are best suited to be used in ‘as-is’ condition will lease first, and some landlords will do minor tenant improvements upfront to be more competitive. Though individual markets perform at their own pace, we haven’t reached the bottom yet so expect this to continue until there’s a turning point.”

 6. Rising Cost Of Construction – Chilling effect on construction, wherever rents can’t keep pace.

“As the market slows, the upward pressure on cost (labor and materials) should ease for a bit,” Spelke said. “Subcontractors looking to keep crews engaged will look to be more competitive as projects are put on hold and shelved.”

7. Higher Energy Prices – Higher occupancy costs will erode tenants’ ability to pay higher rents.

Marilee Utter, CRE, global chair of The Counselors of Real Estate, tells GlobeSt.com “The consequences building and that business owners are facing – and need to consider in business continuity and resiliency planning – include rising insurance costs and increased investment in on-site energy resilience.”

8. Slowing Demand – While central banks attempt to cool off overheated sectors, broad-based tenant demand will likely step down a notch because monetary policies are blunt instruments that don’t distinguish well between sectors. In some parts of the world, ‘recession’ danger signals are flashing.

9. Currency Movements – Differentials in interest rates/inflation will favor currencies with rising interest rates and could raise hedging costs for currencies with lagging interest rate increases.

10. Rising Expenses – Just about every expense category associated with operating a property will be under upward cost pressure. Operational-intensive properties that require a lot of headcount or energy consumption could be most affected.

As a corollary to No. 5, LaSalle said net leases will be preferred by investors, but tenants will be under new cost pressures that could affect their ability to renew or to expand. Long leases to real estate operators whose margins could be squeezed by both rising occupancy and labor costs are an example of the kinds of risk to avoid.

Michael Busenhart, Vice President Real Estate at Archer, tells GlobeSt.com that with the recent inflation increases, owners are feeling the benefit on the rental income side, but also feeling the pressure on the expense side.

“As multifamily owners look to maximize LOI, many are seeking an edge to curb expense spending,” Busenhart said. “To do this, they can review financials internally to notice increased trends, or use data that enables asset managers to benchmark their properties/portfolio against the competition to seek areas where they can improve against the overall market.”

 

Source: GlobeSt

Businessman looking through binoculars

As we round the halfway mark of 2022, dynamics are shifting in the commercial real estate investment environment.

Preliminary data from SitusAMC Insight’s second quarter 2022 institutional investor survey shows changing preferences among property segments.

Compared to the previous quarter, the percentage of investors selecting industrial as the best property type over the next year plummeted from 47 percent to 11 percent, citing major concerns that the sector is overpriced. Apartment was the most favored segment among investors; 56 percent of investors ranked apartment as the best sector, up from 21 percent last quarter.

Skyrocketing mortgage rates are putting a crimp in single-family affordability, resulting in strong demand conditions for apartments. Several investors also remarked that apartments were the best inflation hedge among the property types. Retail appears to be making a comeback, with investor preference for the sector climbing to 33 percent from just 11 percent last quarter, citing opportunity for yield plays. Investor sentiment on office, on the other hand, is extremely bearish; no investors selected it as the top property type, with the sector falling from 16 percent in first quarter.

SitusAMC is seeing these sentiment shifts play out in their client work. After so many quarters of seemingly unstoppable growth, the industrial sector is starting to show initial signs of a slowdown, even though fundamentals are still strong. While rents are still growing in most markets and investors are still anticipating widespread above-inflationary rent growth and are underwriting to these assumptions, it is unrealistic to expect another quarter of 8 percent to 12 percent rent growth. Meanwhile, the buyer pool for industrial has been shrinking since the beginning of the year, and some of the larger portfolios are not being financed or traded.

Some Value Deterioration

The value driver for apartments in the second quarter was market rents and rent growth. There is still very strong sales activity, but, as with industrial, there are fewer investors at the table when the bidding reaches the best and final round. Regardless, the fundamentals remain very strong. For the first time in several quarters, low-rise apartments are performing better than garden apartments. Suburban is still outperforming urban, but some urban locations are showing signs of growth.

Investment rates are not decreasing across the board— they are very specific to the assets and the submarket. Gateway markets are lagging but improving. New York is the leader of the gateway markets, and Chicago is seeing improvements in rent growth, which is translating into some value improvement. San Francisco is starting to produce positive indicators as well, and Boston and Seattle are experiencing growth momentum. SitusAMC Insight’s proprietary multifamily affordability indexes indicate improved affordability in gateway markets vs. affordability deterioration in non-gateway metros.

SitusAMC’s retail valuations were slightly up in second quarter. Leasing activity has picked up, with many reflecting short-term mid-pandemic leases that are expiring and being renewed. A couple of large deals involving grocery-anchored centers have signaled very strong cap rates, in the low-to-mid 4 percent range, in strong markets like San Diego and Miami. However, these rates were negotiated at the beginning of the year when the debt markets had not yet changed.

Some SitusAMC clients are repricing their assets down slightly because of the debt market environment. In addition, recent strong retail sales are unlikely to continue as inflation erodes consumers’ disposable income and redirects spending to everyday necessities like gasoline and food. Retail outlets that provide essential goods, such as neighborhood and community centers with grocery anchors, will likely maintain steady income streams. Malls could be hurt by the decline in nonessential spending.

Office values remained relatively flat in the second quarter; most of the increases in values seen were owing to contractual rent increases. Overall office values are skewed, however, by strong growth in life science. SitusAMC is seeing many tenants downsizing. Daily office occupancy is mired around 40 percent, and it might not exceed 60 percent in the long term. There has been a flight to quality as employers try to attract top talent during a tight labor market.

On the bright side, near-term market rent growth has steadily increased over the past year, however, and is getting closer to the standard 3 percent. The strongest growth markets continue to be in the Sun Belt and the suburbs, which are doing better than CBD and gateway markets, but rents are increasing in those areas, as well. There have also been a lot of early renewals—near 10 percent, the highest level since 2015—though this is partly due to leases that expired during the pandemic and were renewed on a short-term basis.

 

Source: Commercial Property Executive

construction site with sunset sky background_26174032_s-770x320

When it comes to housing in South Florida, homebuyers and renters aren’t the only ones grappling with sticker shock.

Developers often face construction costs that are 20% to 30% higher than a year ago – a trend that’s already stalled some projects at a time when local residents struggle to secure housing. That means builders have to weigh whether to accept smaller profit margins, eschew some projects altogether or, in the case of affordable housing, seek more money from public funding sources to complete those jobs.

The tri-county region has become one of the most expensive U.S. metropolitan areas to live in due to the heated demand for housing and shortage of developable land. Much of that stems from the influx of out-of-state residents who flocked to the area in record numbers during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The rising cost of materials such as lumber, steel, fuel and iron, as well as tariffs, trade issues and surging labor costs have also driven up construction costs, resulting in higher rents for residential and commercial properties. And rising interest rates also are bringing down some sale prices, which impacts developers’ profit margins.

The spike in construction costs has led some developers to question the viability of taking on certain projects. For example, if construction estimates for condos come in too high, it may not make financial sense to build them, industry insiders say.

Developers and contractors must budget for construction cost increases and prepare for shortages in the supply chain. Items such as concrete, appliances, glass and steel are just some of the necessary staples that can delay the completion of the buildings.

“Construction costs have been as volatile as I’ve ever seen them in my 40 years in the market,” said Michael C. Taylor, CEO of Pompano Beach-based Current Builders. “From August of last year, we are seeing 20% to 25% increases. We don’t have any line items not increasing.”

Typically, Taylor tells developers his quotes are good for six months. But now he can only guarantee prices for 30 to 60 days, as delivery times on certain products have jumped from three months to nearly a year, he added.

Supply chain shortages and material costs are escalating at a pace he’s never seen, said Chris Long, president of Delray Beach-based Kaufman Lynn Construction.

“There’s great demand for housing as people continue moving to Florida, but this has led to affordability challenges,” Long said. “There’s some concern out there that we reached the peak and things need to normalize. They are trying to get deals done before the bubble bursts.”

Construction costs for commercial projects are up 7% to 10% a year, so it’s less severe than for residential projects, said Michael C. Brown, executive VP of Florida for Sweden-based construction firm Skanska. Nevertheless, many of its health care and education clients are scaling down the size of projects – an eight-story hospital wing instead of 10 stories, for instance – to move forward.

Contract Sticking Points

In many cases, the rise in construction costs has created friction between developers and general contractors.

Contracts inked a few years ago couldn’t factor in dramatic building cost increases or supply chain delays, so the parties have to determine who pays for those additional costs, said Lisa Colon, a construction attorney with Saul Ewing Arnstein & Lehr in Fort Lauderdale.

“Owners are making concessions because of supply chain issues that they would not have made two years ago,” Colon said. “Profit margins are less, but you can push it down to the consumer. The consumer will continue to see an increase in rent. Many developers and contractors are now adding price escalation clauses that specify a larger commitment from developers to cover cost overruns. It’s a false thought that contractors are making all this money as prices are going up. Nothing could be further from the truth. Their profit margins are being squeezed even tighter.”

Construction contracts should also address delays and whether material shortages should result in financial compensation, because most contractors will insist on avoiding liability when material shortages are out of their control, said Jordan Nadel, a construction attorney at Miami-based Mark Migdal & Hayden.

 

Source: SFBJ

43896596 - dollar money

After a banner year of CRE investment in 2021, 2022 is off to a solid start.

Reports from both Colliers and CBRE for the first three months of this year found that investment in CRE is up and, by some accounts, setting records.

U.S. transaction volume hit $161B, a first-quarter all-time high, Colliers found. CBRE clocked total transaction volume at $150.4B, which was a 45% increase over the same time the year before.

Volume was up for all asset classes, but unsurprisingly, multifamily took the top spot, capturing $63B, according to Colliers. That amounts to a 56% increase year-over-year and sets a new record for multifamily, according to Colliers.

By CBRE’s count, multifamily also took the lead, but CBRE found it garnered $57B in investment volume, a 42% increase over the previous year’s first quarter. It is common for brokerages to have different numbers based on their research metrics, including size of deals tracked.

Greater New York and greater LA were in the No. 1 and No. 2 spots for transactions, respectively, CBRE found. New York saw $63B worth of deals, while greater LA trailed closely behind with $62B worth of transactions.

Earlier this year, CBRE forecast that even after 2021’s record highs, CRE investment would continue to grow in 2022.

Though interest rates are moving upward and inflation is soaring, these factors haven’t had an impact on CRE yet, Colliers said, though it also noted those would likely be reflected in data later in the year because there is a lag between interest rates being hiked and deal flow effects.

CRE is often called an inflation hedge, and the interest in CRE this year could be seen as confirmation that investors view property as an investment that could withstand the uptick, but now some investors have begun to make moves that indicate they aren’t sure how much longer that will hold true.

 

Source: Bisnow

currency-rolled-up-to-form-bar-chart_inflation_65571224_s-770x320

Supply chain problems, labor shortages, and the housing shortage are all fueling inflation to eye-popping levels – and for CRE investors, that will mean greater competition for assets.

Headline inflation is up 7.1% from last year, the biggest uptick since 1982. And that rising inflationary pressure is forcing the Fed to switch gears and tighten policy.

“This will in turn put upward pressure on interest rates, raising the cost of capital for CRE investors,” says Marcus & Millichap’s John Chang.

Supply chain is the first contributing factor to inflationary pressures.

“It’s hard to move products from the manufacturers to the customers,” Chang says.

He points to shortages in raw materials, limitations on foreign port capacity, shipping container shortages, backlogs at domestic ports like those in Los Angeles and Long Beach, and a shortage of trucks.

“Basically, people want to buy more stuff than our supply chain can handle right now, so there are shortages and that means prices go up,” Chang says.

Retail sales are up 16% over 2019 numbers, while the amount of product moved by trucks in the US is down 5.1% over the same period.

The second issue? Labor shortages, which continue to stoke inflation.

“Quite simply, the US has never experienced a labor shortage like this,” Chang says. “At least not in the last 22 years, when records have been kept. As a result, companies are competing for personnel, and that’s driving up wages.”

Average hourly earnings are up 5% over last year, and sectors like accommodations and food services have seen labor cost increases of more than 15%.

“Rising wages create broad-based long-term inflation,” Chang says.

The third challenge is the housing shortage: there are not enough houses to buy or apartments to rent right now, and the problem will likely continue at least in the near term. There are currently about 1 million houses for sale in the US right now, about two months’ worth of supply; typically, four to six months’ worth of supply is required to maintain stability in the market.  Housing prices shot up 14.9% last year in response to the shortage.

In addition, there are only about 480,000 apartments available for rent, a vacancy rate of 2.6%, the lowest on record. Rents rose 15.5% last year.

“The Fed will be taking action to curtail the rising costs,” Chang says.

He notes that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has already announced plans to accelerate the end of quantitative easing that was put in place during the pandemic, and says this will likely put upward pressure on long-term interest rates. The overnight rate is also on track to increase three times or more this year, which will put upward pressure on short term interest rates.

“As a result, interest rates are likely to continue to rise,” Chang says.

The ten-year Treasury rate is already up about 30 basis points from the beginning of December to a little over 1.7%. For investors, this will equate to more competition.

“Commercial real estate is viewed as one of the best places to invest money during periods of high inflation, especially properties that can increase rents with the market, like apartments, hotels, and self-storage properties,” Chang says. “Rising interest rates, and increased investor demand, implies that levered yields will compress this year. Basically, more commercial real estate buyer competition will push cap rates lower while the cost of capital, or interest rates, rise. That means CRE levered returns may tighten. But several property types still offer higher yields, like well-positioned office assets, retail assets, medical office buildings and some hotels, and properties in softer markets harder-hit by COVID restrictions could also offer higher yields and stronger multi-year returns.

 

Source: GlobeSt

31118274 - clock with words time for change on its face

Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics and founder of Economy.com told more than 1,000 attendees of NAIOP’s CRE Converge conference taking place in Miami Beach, that while the pandemic is altering the U.S. economy, changes in store bode well for commercial real estate.

On the positive side, the economy has recovered 17 million of the 22 million jobs that were lost due to the pandemic. The policy response on the part of the Federal Reserve, Congress and the White House, including maintaining low short- and long-term interest rates, the CARES Act and the American Rescue Plan, have collectively kept the economy from failing.

“I’m assuming that the pandemic is going to continue to wind down, and that with each new wave the disruptions to the economy will be less significant. Over the course of the next 18-24 months, the pandemic doesn’t go away but it largely fades away in terms of what it means in terms of our work and lives,” Zandi said.

Zandi noted that however it shakes out, the infrastructure spending packages will also be beneficial to the economy. And he said that with respect to monetary policy, the Fed will slowly take its foot off the monetary accelerator – raising short term interest rates by spring of 2023 and tapering the quantitative easing of buying bonds.

The pandemic has not only accelerated certain trends, it is causing permanent shifts. These include remote work, less domestic travel generally, less business travel and an increasing net migration from urban cores.

Prior to the pandemic, a net of 275,000 people on average were leaving urban cores in the U.S. to live in other locales; during the pandemic, that number jumped to more than 600,000.

Zandi also identified the risks inherent in the post-pandemic economy:

  • The Delta variant of COVID-19 has unnerved consumers and workers.
  • Fiscal policy is at risk with Congress threatening to not fund the government’s fiscal year, which begins Oct 1.
  • Housing prices are stretched and possibly primed for a correction as interest rates begin to increase.
  • Maybe not today, but at some point down the road, government debt and deficits will become a problem.
  • Supply chain shortages continue to make it difficult to obtain building supplies and consumer goods.

Meanwhile the pandemic has also fueled a significant rise in productivity.

“There are fundamental things going on in the economy that argue for stronger productivity growth. Businesses are investing in labor-saving software, baby boomers are retiring, and the workforce is becoming younger,” Zandi said. “That’s a big deal for the economy. It goes to profits, wages, and our ability to address our fiscal policies.”

 

Source: GlobeSt.

 

10349421 - hand of businessman holding dollars

Pricing and cap rates for Class A industrial product are expected to stabilize for the remainder of this year, according to a new report from Cushman & Wakefield—though trophy properties in the Inland Empire of Southern California, New Jersey, South Florida, Seattle, and Dallas will reap the most aggressive overall rates.

Spring 2021 data from C&W shows that overall capitalization rates range widely by asset class, with a nearly 90 basis point difference between Class A and B industrial product and a 235 bps difference between Class A and C industrial facilities. And overall rates for Class C properties are clocking in 143 bps higher than their Class B counterparts.

Average cap rates for Class A assets ranged from between 3.25 and 5.5% in spring 2021 and declined by 33 basis points year over year, while Class B went down by 58 and Class C assets declined by 89 bps since last spring. And while demand for Class A product in core US cities has been strong, over the past five years rates began to stabilize.

“Little if any additional compression is expected for the remainder of 2021 and into 2022, with investors closely monitoring interest rates and 10- year Treasury yield rates,” the report states.

Cap rates for Class B and C product are logging the largest decreases as investors target more of the former to generate higher yields and returns from higher-priced Class A assets. The average for Class B product this spring fell between 4 and 7%, while the average cap rates for Class C assets ranged between 5 and 9%.

“Due to the lack of available and higher priced Class A product, investors are now targeting Class B and, in some cases, Class C product, seeking higher yields/returns—especially from those assets located near populated urban areas,” the report states. “Product close to urban areas has become the driver in order to reduce shipping and, more importantly, delivery times.”

 

 

Source: GlobeSt